Taking Care of Business Blog

The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH) presents a formal and systematic exposition of a new narrative about financial markets that reconciles rational investor behaviour with periods of temporary financial insanity. In this narrative, intelligent but fallible investors learn from and adapt to randomly shifting environments. Financial markets may not always be efficient, but they are highly competitive, innovative, and adaptive, varying in their degree of efficiency as investor populations and the financial landscape change over time. Andrew Lo and Ruixun Zhang develop the mathematical foundations of the AMH--a simple yet surprisingly powerful set of evolutionary models of behaviour--and then apply these foundations to show how the most fundamental economic behaviours that we take for granted can arise solely through natural selection. Drawing on recent advances in cognitive neuroscience and artificial intelligence, the book also explores how our brain affects economic and financial decision making. The AMH can be applied in many contexts, ranging from designing trading strategies, to managing risk and understanding financial crises, to formulating macroprudential policies to promote financial stability. This volume is a must read for anyone who has ever been puzzled and concerned by the behaviour of financial markets and the implications for their personal wealth, and seeks to learn how best to respond to such behaviour.

Few would disagree that inclusion is both the right thing to do and good for business. Then why are we so terrible at it? If we believe in the morality and the profitability of including people of diverse and underestimated backgrounds in the workplace, why don't we do it? Because, explains Ruchika Tulshyan in this eye-opening book, we don't realize that inclusion takes awareness, intention, and regular practice. Inclusion doesn't just happen; we have to work at it. Tulshyan presents inclusion best practices, showing how leaders and organizations can meaningfully promote inclusion and diversity. Tulshyan centers the workplace experience of women of color, who are subject to both gender and racial bias. It is at the intersection of gender and race, she shows, that we discover the kind of inclusion policies that benefit all. Tulshyan debunks the idea of the "level playing field" and explains how leaders and organizations can use their privilege for good by identifying and exposing bias, knowing that they typically have less to lose in speaking up than a woman of color does. She explains why "leaning in" doesn't work--and dismantling structural bias does; warns against hiring for "culture fit," arguing for "culture add" instead; and emphasizes the importance of psychological safety in the workplace--you need to know that your organization has your back.

The new path for economic development that India must create The whole world has a stake in India's future, and that future hinges on whether India can develop its economy and deliver for its population--now the world's largest--while staying democratic. India's economy has overtaken the United Kingdom's to become the fifth-largest in the world, but it is still only one-fifth the size of China's, and India's economic growth is too slow to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India's current path are intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country's majoritarian streak in politics. In Breaking the Mold, Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba show why and how India needs to blaze a new path if it's to succeed. India diverged long ago from the standard development model, the one followed by China--from agriculture to low-skilled manufacturing, then high-skilled manufacturing and, finally, services--by leapfrogging intermediate steps. India must not turn back now. Rajan and Lamba explain how India can accelerate growth by prioritizing human capital, expanding opportunities in high-skilled services, encouraging entrepreneurship, and strengthening rather than weakening its democratic traditions. It can chart a path based on ideas and creativity even at its early stage of development. Filled with vivid examples and written with incisive candor, Breaking the Mold shows how India can break free of the stumbling blocks of the past and embrace the enormous possibilities of the future.

Longlisted for the Financial Times and Schroders Business Book of the Year Award A novel economic interpretation of how religions have become so powerful in the modern world Religion in the twenty-first century is alive and well across the world, despite its apparent decline in North America and parts of Europe. Vigorous competition between and within religious movements has led to their accumulating great power and wealth. Religions in many traditions have honed their competitive strategies over thousands of years. Today, they are big business; like businesses, they must recruit, raise funds, disburse budgets, manage facilities, organize transportation, motivate employees, and get their message out. In The Divine Economy, economist Paul Seabright argues that religious movements are a special kind of business: they are platforms, bringing together communities of members who seek many different things from one another--spiritual fulfilment, friendship and marriage networks, even business opportunities. Their function as platforms, he contends, is what has allowed religions to consolidate and wield power. This power can be used for good, especially when religious movements provide their members with insurance against the shocks of modern life, and a sense of worth in their communities. It can also be used for harm: political leaders often instrumentalize religious movements for authoritarian ends, and religious leaders can exploit the trust of members to inflict sexual, emotional, financial or physical abuse, or to provoke violence against outsiders. Writing in a nonpartisan spirit, Seabright uses insights from economics to show how religion and secular society can work together in a world where some people feel no need for religion, but many continue to respond with enthusiasm to its call.

How the creation of a new banking infrastructure in the early twentieth century established the United States as a global financial power The dominance of US multinational businesses today can seem at first like an inevitable byproduct of the nation's superpower status. In Dollars and Dominion, Mary Bridges tells a different origin story. She explores the ramshackle beginnings of US financial power overseas, showing that US bankers in the early twentieth century depended on the US government, European know-how, and last-minute improvisation to sustain their work abroad. Bridges focuses on an underappreciated piece of the nation's financial infrastructure--the overseas branch bank--as a brick-and-mortar foundation for expanding US commercial influence. Bridges explores how bankers sorted their new communities into "us"--potential clients--and "them"--local populations, who often existed on the periphery of the banking world. She argues that US bankers mapped their new communities by creating foreign credit information--and by using a financial asset newly enabled by the Federal Reserve System, the bankers' acceptance, in the process. In doing so, they constructed a new architecture of US trade finance that relied on long-standing inequalities and hierarchies of privilege. Thus, racialized, class-based, and gendered ideas became baked into the financial infrastructure. Contrary to conventional wisdom, there was nothing inevitable or natural about the rise of US finance capitalism. Bridges shows that US foreign banking was a bootstrapped project that began as a side hustle of Gilded Age tycoons and sustained itself by relying on the power of the US state, copying the example of British foreign bankers, and building alliances with local elites. In this way, US bankers constructed a flexible and durable new infrastructure to support the nation's growing global power.

A remedy for the gap between micro and macro data, making measures of inequality and national income consistent with each other Increasing inequality, the impact of globalization, and the disparate effects of financial regulation and innovation are extraordinarily important topics that fuel spirited policy debates. And yet the facts underlying these debates are of doubtful accuracy. In reality, as Archawa Paweenawat and Robert Townsend show in Inequality and Globalization, there is a large gap between micro household surveys, which measure key outcomes such as inequality, and aggregated financial accounts, which measure macroeconomic totals and growth. Paweenawat and Townsend propose a remedy: integrated financial accounts, in which the flows in income statements, including saving and investment, are consistent with the changes in financial assets and liabilities in the balance sheet at micro and macro levels. None of the leading US micro household surveys or macro accounts meets this criterion. Drawing on extensive data from fieldwork in Thailand, Paweenawat and Townsend show how consistent integrated financial accounts at the individual household and small enterprise level can be created using household and firm survey data. Aggregated to the village level, these accounts can link anecdotal stories of individual households to their financial accounts, document the real impact on them from growth, and assess what would have happened to them if trade and financial liberalization had not been allowed. Paweenawat and Townsend then describe the next logical step: creating integrated financial accounts for the United States, working from the ground up and the top down. Only with these integrated accounts will policy debates on inequality and globalization have a solid factual basis.

A novel perspective on monetary and fiscal policy that views money as the equity capital of a nation A conventional economic theory, monetarism, holds that inflation is a monetary phenomenon driven by changes in the supply of money. Yet recent experience--including the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008 and the economic development of China--contradicts this basic prediction. In this book, leading economists Patrick Bolton and Haizhou Huang offer a novel perspective, viewing monetary economics through the lens of corporate finance. They propose a richer theory, where money can be seen as the equity capital of a nation, playing a similar role as stocks for a company. This innovative framework integrates the real and monetary sides of the economy, with a banking sector and debt at its core. In the financial world, companies issue new shares only if it results in some kind of value creation; this is a basic principle of corporate finance that Bolton and Huang argue can be applied to monetary economics. When the government increases the money supply to finance positive net value investments--when it prints money to keep the economy going--it increases output, not inflation. This is evidenced by the strong growth in GDP and money in China over the last four decades, and in the United States during World War II. The effect of increasing money supply, they argue, depends on how money enters the system and what the money buys. The principles outlined by Bolton and Huang shed new light on a range of issues, including inflation, monetary and fiscal policy, central banking, money and growth, and the international monetary system.

How the subtle but significant consequences of a hotter planet have already begun--from lower test scores to higher crime rates--and how we might tackle them today It's hard not to feel anxious about the problem of climate change, especially if we think of it as an impending planetary catastrophe. In Slow Burn, R. Jisung Park encourages us to view climate change through a different lens: one that focuses less on the possibility of mass climate extinction in a theoretical future, and more on the everyday implications of climate change here and now. Drawing on a wealth of new data and cutting-edge economics, Park shows how climate change headlines often miss some of the most important costs. When wildfires blaze, what happens to people downwind of the smoke? When natural disasters destroy buildings and bridges, what happens to educational outcomes? Park explains how climate change operates as the silent accumulation of a thousand tiny conflagrations: imperceptibly elevated health risks spread across billions of people; pennies off the dollar of productivity; fewer opportunities for upward mobility. By investigating how the physical phenomenon of climate change interacts with social and economic institutions, Park illustrates how climate change already affects everyone, and may act as an amplifier of inequality. Wealthier households and corporations may adapt quickly, but, without targeted interventions, less advantaged communities may not. Viewing climate change as a slow and unequal burn comes with an important silver lining. It puts dollars and cents behind the case for aggressive emissions cuts and helps identify concrete steps that can be taken to better manage its adverse effects. We can begin to overcome our climate anxiety, Park shows us, when we begin to tackle these problems locally.

An Economist Biggest Book of the Year How commerce determines whether America preserves the peace or goes to war When the Cold War ended, many believed that expanding trade would usher in an era of peace. Yet today the United States finds itself confronting not just Russia in Europe but China in the Indo-Pacific, Africa, and Latin America. Shedding new light on how trade both reduces and increases the risks of international crisis, A World Safe for Commerce traces how, since the nation's founding, the United States has consistently moved from peace to conflict when the commerce needed for national security is under threat. Dale Copeland shows how commerce pushes the United States and its rivals to expand their spheres of influence for access to goods even as they worry about provoking a breakdown in trade relations that could spiral into military conflict. Taking readers from the wars with Britain in 1776 and 1812 to World War II and the Cold War, he describes how America's leaders have grappled with this inherent tension, and why they have shifted, sometimes dramatically, from peaceful, mutually beneficial policies to coercion and force in order to increase control over vital trade and prevent economic decline. A World Safe for Commerce reveals how trade competition could lead the United States and China into full-scale confrontation. But it also offers hope that both sides can work to improve their overall trade expectations and foster the confidence needed for long-term peace and stability.

An incisive overview of the macroeconomics of financial crises--essential reading for students and policy experts alike With alarming frequency, modern economies go through macro-financial crashes that arise from the financial sector and spread to the broader economy, inflicting deep and prolonged recessions. A Crash Course on Crises brings together the latest cutting-edge economic research to identify the seeds of these crashes, reveal their triggers and consequences, and explain what policymakers can do about them. Each of the book's ten self-contained chapters introduces readers to a key economic force and provides case studies that illustrate how that force was dominant. Markus Brunnermeier and Ricardo Reis show how the run-up phase of a crisis often occurs in ways that are preventable but that may go unnoticed and discuss how debt contracts, banks, and a search for safety can act as triggers and amplifiers that drive the economy to crash. Brunnermeier and Reis then explain how monetary, fiscal, and exchange-rate policies can respond to crises and prevent them from becoming persistent. With case studies ranging from Chile in the 1970s to the COVID-19 pandemic, A Crash Course on Crises synthesizes a vast literature into ten simple, accessible ideas and illuminates these concepts using novel diagrams and a clear analytical framework.

A sweeping, revisionist historical analysis of telecommunications networks, from the dawn of the republic to the 21st century.Telecommunications networks are vast, intricate, hugely costly systems for exchanging messages and information-within cities and across continents. From the Post Office and the telegraph to today's internet, these networks have sown domestic division while also acting as sources of international power. In Crossed Wires, Dan Schiller, who has conducted archival research on US telecommunications for more than forty years, recovers the extraordinary social history of the major network systems of the United States. Drawing on arrays of archival documents and secondary sources, Schiller reveals that this history has been shaped by sharp social and political conflict and is embedded in the larger history of an expansionary US political economy. Schiller argues that networks have enabled US imperialism through a a recurrent "American system" of cross-border communications. Three other key findings wind through the book. First, business users of networks--more than carriers, and certainly more than residential users--have repeatedly determined how telecommunications systems have developed. Second, despite their current importance for virtually every sphere of social life, networks have been consecrated above all to aiding the circulation of commodities. Finally, although the preferences of executives and officials have broadly determined outcomes, these elites have repeatedly had to contend against the ideas and organizations of workers, social movement activists, and other reformers. This authoritative and comprehensive revisionist history of US telecommunications argues that not technology but a dominative--and contested--political economy drove the evolution of this critical industry.

From the Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times bestselling coauthor of Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism, candid reflections on the economist's craft When economist Angus Deaton immigrated to the United States from Britain in the early 1980s, he was awed by America's strengths and shocked by the extraordinary gaps he witnessed between people. Economics in America explains in clear terms how the field of economics addresses the most pressing issues of our time--from poverty, retirement, and the minimum wage to the ravages of the nation's uniquely disastrous health care system--and narrates Deaton's account of his experiences as a naturalized US citizen and academic economist. Deaton is witty and pulls no punches. In this incisive, candid, and funny book, he describes the everyday lives of working economists, recounting the triumphs as well as the disasters, and tells the inside story of the Nobel Prize in economics and the journey that led him to Stockholm to receive one. He discusses the ongoing tensions between economics and politics--and the extent to which economics has any content beyond the political prejudices of economists--and reflects on whether economists bear at least some responsibility for the growing despair and rising populism in America. Blending rare personal insights with illuminating perspectives on the social challenges that confront us today, Deaton offers a disarmingly frank critique of his own profession while shining a light on his adopted country's policy accomplishments and failures.

Why most Americans' finances improved during the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression--and the policy choices that made this possible In March 2020, economic and social life across the United States came to an abrupt halt as the country tried to slow the spread of COVID-19. In the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression, twenty-two million people lost their jobs between mid-March and mid-April of 2020. And yet somehow the finances of most Americans improved during the pandemic--savings went up, debts went down, and fewer people had trouble paying their bills. In The Pandemic Paradox, economist Scott Fulford explains this seeming contradiction, describing how the pandemic reshaped the American economy. As Americans grappled with remote work, "essential" work, and closed schools, three massive pandemic relief bills, starting with the CARES Act on March 27, 2020, managed to protect many of America's most vulnerable. Fulford draws from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's "Making Ends Meet" surveys--which he helped design--to interweave macroeconomic trends in spending, saving, and debt with stories of individual Americans' economic lives during the pandemic. We meet Winona, who quit her job to take care of her children; Marvin, who retired early and worried that his savings wouldn't last; Lisa, whose expenses went up after her grown kids (and their dog) moved back home; and many others. What the statistics and the stories show, Fulford argues, is that a better, fairer, more productive economy is still possible. The success of pandemic relief policy proves that Americans' economic fragility is not an unsolvable problem. But we have to choose to solve it.

From a Nobel Prize-winning pioneer in environmental economics, an innovative account of how and why "green thinking" could cure many of the world's most serious problems--from global warming to pandemics Solving the world's biggest problems--from climate catastrophe and pandemics to wildfires and corporate malfeasance--requires, more than anything else, coming up with new ways to manage the powerful interactions that surround us. For carbon emissions and other environmental damage, this means ensuring that those responsible pay their full costs rather than continuing to pass them along to others, including future generations. In The Spirit of Green, Nobel Prize-winning economist William Nordhaus describes a new way of green thinking that would help us overcome our biggest challenges without sacrificing economic prosperity, in large part by accounting for the spillover costs of economic collisions. In a discussion that ranges from the history of the environmental movement to the Green New Deal, Nordhaus explains how the spirit of green thinking provides a compelling and hopeful new perspective on modern life. At the heart of green thinking is a recognition that the globalized world is shaped not by isolated individuals but rather by innumerable interactions inside and outside the economy. He shows how rethinking economic efficiency, sustainability, politics, profits, taxes, individual ethics, corporate social responsibility, finance, and more would improve the effectiveness and equity of our society. And he offers specific solutions--on how to price carbon, how to pursue low-carbon technologies, how to design an efficient tax system, and how to foster international cooperation through climate clubs. The result is a groundbreaking new vision of how we can have our environment and our economy too.

Named One of Barack Obama's Favorite Books of the Year. A vivid account of the past, present, and future of economic growth, showing how and why we must continue to pursue it while responding to the challenges it creates. Over the past two centuries, economic growth has freed billions from the struggle for subsistence and made our lives far healthier and longer. Yet prosperity has come at a price: environmental destruction, desolation of local cultures, the rise of vast inequalities and destabilizing technologies. Faced with such damage, many now claim that the only way forward is through "degrowth," deliberately shrinking our economic footprint. But to abandon humanity's progress would be folly. Instead, Daniel Susskind argues, we must keep growth but redirect it, making it better reflect what we truly value. In a sweeping analysis full of historical insight, Susskind shows how policymaking came to revolve around a single-minded quest for greater GDP. This is a surprisingly recent development: economic growth was barely discussed until the second half of the twentieth century. And our understanding of what drives it is more recent still. Only lately have we come to see how humankind emerged from its millennia of stagnation: through the sustained discovery of powerful and productive new ideas. This insight undermines the mantra that "we cannot have infinite growth on a finite planet," for the world of ideas is infinitely vast. Yet growth's critics are right to insist that we can no longer focus on its upsides alone. We must confront the tradeoffs, Susskind contends: sometimes, societies will have to deliberately pursue less growth for the sake of other goals. These will be moral decisions, not simply economic ones, demanding the engagement not just of politicians and experts but of all citizens.

A USA Today National Bestseller! An inspiring and personal roadmap to servant leadership In All Pride, No Ego: A Queer Executive's Journey to Living and Leading Authentically, celebrated corporate leader James Fielding delivers an inspirational leadership story told from the perspective of an out and proud LGBTQ+ executive. In the book, you'll explore a call-to-action for authentic servant leadership that encourages people to own their truth and bring out the best in themselves and their communities. The author explains his key decisions and inflection points and highlights how his leadership style, learnings, successes, and failures informed his rise through the rungs of the corporate ladder. You'll also find: The importance of becoming and remaining a lifelong learner and constantly curious How to control the controllable while leaving space for the possible Strategies for employing truthful and inspirational servant leadership An essential resource for managers, executives, directors, and other business leaders, All Pride, No Ego: A Queer Executive's Journey to Living and Leading Authentically will also earn a place on the bookshelves of young, aspiring leaders seeking practical and impactful strategies for real-world leadership.

Tour the history of human invention-and its attendant breakthroughs and busts-in this history book from the New York Times-bestselling author of How the World Really Works. A BILL GATES RECOMMENDED BOOK- "Every Smil book that I own is marked up with lots of notes that I take while reading. Invention and Innovation is no exception." The world is never finished catching up with Vaclav Smil, author of New York Times bestsellers How the World Really Works and Energy and Civilization. In Invention and Innovation, the prolific author-a favorite of Bill Gates-pens an insightful and fact-filled jaunt through the history of human invention. Impatient with the hype that so often accompanies innovation, Smil offers in this book a clear-eyed corrective to the overpromises that accompany everything from new cures for diseases to AI. He reminds us that even after we go quite far along the invention-development-application trajectory, we may never get anything real to deploy. Or worse, even after we have succeeded by introducing an invention, its future may be marked by underperformance, disappointment, demise, or outright harm. Drawing on his vast breadth of scientific and historical knowledge, Smil explains the difference between invention and innovation, and looks not only at inventions that failed to dominate as promised (such as the airship, nuclear fission, and supersonic flight), but also at those that turned disastrous (leaded gasoline, DDT, and chlorofluorocarbons). And finally, most importantly, he offers a "wish list" of inventions that we most urgently need to confront the staggering challenges of the twenty-first century. Filled with engaging examples and pragmatic approaches, this book is a sobering account of the folly that so often attends human ingenuity-and how we can, and must, better align our expectations with reality.

LGBTQ+ individuals disproportionately encounter bias, adversity, stigma, and marginalization throughout their lives. It's an enormous obstacle - but also prepares them for leadership in a fast-moving, volatile, uncertain, complex, and adaptive working world. The book explores the unique and inspiring developmental experiences of LGBTQ+ leaders, the amazing capabilities they bring to teams, and what that means for everyone pursuing positive and inclusive organizational strategy. With stories from the armed forces, lawyers, entrepreneurs, authors, academics, thought-leaders, medical professionals -you name it - this shows how queer folk everywhere are harnessing their hard-won power and resilience to excel. With a history of excellence in queer leadership, the contextual underpinning of adversity and resilience theory, and uplifting stories and soundbites from queer game-changers in every field - this is an essential resource for LGBTQ+ individuals, allies, advocates, business professionals and leaders of all kinds.